Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.013668 0.015457 0.017393 0.019645 0.022192 0.024984 0.028279
2025-10-26 0.010677 0.013102 0.015948 0.019535 0.023942 0.029182 0.035895
2025-11-02 0.009049 0.011743 0.015085 0.019538 0.025326 0.032606 0.042478
2025-11-09 0.007760 0.010541 0.014151 0.019185 0.026038 0.035062 0.047885
2025-11-16 0.006981 0.009866 0.013762 0.019413 0.027424 0.038402 0.054650
2025-11-23 0.006233 0.009126 0.013172 0.019253 0.028188 0.040880 0.060362
2025-11-30 0.005795 0.008764 0.013052 0.019709 0.029820 0.044662 0.068221
2025-12-07 0.005143 0.008014 0.012283 0.019111 0.029801 0.045975 0.072454
2025-12-14 0.004661 0.007467 0.011757 0.018811 0.030177 0.047866 0.077678
2025-12-21 0.004189 0.006888 0.011124 0.018274 0.030105 0.049017 0.081771
2025-12-28 0.004021 0.006780 0.011218 0.018902 0.031948 0.053345 0.091388
2026-01-04 0.003823 0.006602 0.011179 0.019296 0.033421 0.057157 0.100434
2026-01-11 0.003649 0.006453 0.011184 0.019778 0.035107 0.061508 0.110871
2026-01-18 0.003386 0.006129 0.010863 0.019665 0.035744 0.064102 0.118435
2026-01-25 0.003169 0.005866 0.010623 0.019668 0.036575 0.067084 0.126930
2026-02-01 0.002920 0.005521 0.010208 0.019312 0.036709 0.068798 0.133180
2026-02-08 0.002778 0.005361 0.010114 0.019542 0.037949 0.072639 0.143794
2026-02-15 0.002595 0.005110 0.009829 0.019381 0.038419 0.075046 0.151791
2026-02-22 0.002506 0.005031 0.009864 0.019840 0.040134 0.079977 0.165227
2026-03-01 0.002298 0.004701 0.009385 0.019238 0.039671 0.080570 0.169841
2026-03-08 0.002143 0.004463 0.009068 0.018936 0.039791 0.082329 0.177005
2026-03-15 0.001975 0.004186 0.008653 0.018395 0.039365 0.082925 0.181728
2026-03-22 0.001937 0.004180 0.008790 0.019027 0.041471 0.088961 0.198746